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CS2 skin market analysis
Raw data, open methodology, honest comparison against traditional benchmarks. Irregular cadence — posts ship when there's a clear thesis, not when the calendar demands one.
- May 3, 2026 · 12 min · Pattern scarcity · Doppler · Case Hardened · EditorialPattern scarcity: why two AK-47 Case Hardeneds at the same float can be priced 100x apartDoppler phases, Case Hardened blue gems, Crimson Web spiders, Marble Fade Fire & Ice. Within the same skin, pattern dictates a 5x to 100x price spread. Framework, named patterns, data gaps the broader skin index can't close.Read →
- May 3, 2026 · 8 min · Methodology · Introduction · STI family · EditorialIntroducing the STI: a market index for the CS2 skin marketThe CS2 skin market trades $1B+/year and has 30,000+ tradable items but had no real benchmark. The STI family fills that gap — 7 indices, S&P-style methodology, 6-year backtest, public data. What it is and how to use it.Read →
- May 3, 2026 · 11 min · Supply scarcity · Contraband · Discontinued · EditorialThe 9 icons: why a curated CS2 skin basket returned 7x the broad index9 hand-picked legacy CS2 skins (Howl, Dragon Lore, Fire Serpent, Hot Rod, etc.) returned ~+377% over 6 years vs STI 30's +54%. The four scarcity mechanisms, the 10x player-base multiplier, and the two logical traps to avoid.Read →
- May 3, 2026 · 9 min · Statistics · Correlation · Methodology · Editorialr=0.77 doesn't mean what you think: correlation levels vs returnsSTI 500 vs CS2 player count is r=0.82 in levels, r=0.26 in monthly returns, r≈0 over the trailing 12 months. All three are true. They mean different things.Read →
- May 3, 2026 · 9 min · Methodology · Rebalance · EditorialWhy monthly (and why quarterly): how rebalance cadence shapes the STI index familySTI 100/500/1000/Cases rebalance monthly. STI 30 rebalances quarterly. Different cadence, different signal. The math, the trade-offs, and why a price tracker without rebalance isn't running an index.Read →
- May 2, 2026 · 11 min · Liquidity · Cross-asset · Friction · EditorialWhy CS2 skins underperformed equities (and when they shouldn't)STI 30 returned +54.5% over 6 years vs S&P 500 +154.4%. The 100-percentage-point gap isn't about skin quality — it's structural friction. The math, and the three cases where it doesn't apply.Read →
- May 1, 2026 · 8 min · Genesis Terminal · Valve · Supply-side · Case studyGenesis Terminal aftermath: how Valve's CS2 acquisition redesign crashed mid-tier 60-78% in 72 hoursOn September 16, 2025, Valve released the Sealed Genesis Terminal — first major change to CS2 skin acquisition mechanic in over a decade. Mid-tier skins crashed 60-78% in 72 hours while blue-chip held flat. Post-mortem with STI index data.Read →
- April 29, 2026 · 12 min · STI · Comparative · S&P 500 · BTC · BacktestCS2 skins vs S&P 500 vs Bitcoin: a 6-year backtest (2020 to 2026)STI 30 returned +54.5% over 6 years. S&P 500 ran +154.4%, bitcoin compounded ~10×. The honest cross-asset comparison and where skins fit in a modern portfolio.Read →
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Looking for more posts? The Portuguese archive at /blog has the full set. Translations are added as they become press-relevant.